In both Croatia & Slovenia, the consumer confidence index decreased on an annual level, with a relatively “stable” downtrend, which is not surprising due to negative market news in the last two years. In Croatia, the Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 20.3 p.p. YoY in August, while in Slovenia it decreased by 19 p.p. YoY. Further, Slovenian’s Consumer confidence index in September also noted a 19 p.p. decrease on a YoY level.
Croatian National Bank published the data where the Consumer Confidence Index is available in Croatia. One can notice a steady improvement in the Index from 2015 up until 2020. In 2020, the Consumer Confidence Index fell from the range of positive 0-10 p.p. to -40 p.p. Since then, during the rest of 2020 and half of 2021, the Index recovered slightly. Nevertheless, since the other half of 2021, Consumer confidence shrunk to the previously mentioned level of c. -40 p.p. where is stood when Covid-19 hit. The highest impact on decreased consumer confidence levels was reported in the 12M expectance of economic activity in Croatia, which decreased by 37.6 p.p. Further, in August 2022, a slight improvement of 1.2 p.p. is noted compared to July 2022, but nonetheless, Index stands at low levels.
Consumer Confidence Index in Croatia
Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia published the data where the Consumer Confidence Index is available in Slovenia. A similar trend as in Croatia is evidenced. During 2022 the Index took a big hit for consumer confidence to pretty much the same levels as in Croatia, amounting to c. -40 p.p. During the first half of 2021, the Index recovered by more than 20 p.p., but since then returned to the previous low levels. On the MoM level, the Index further decreased by 1 p.p. compared to August 2022. . The highest impact on the Index decline was recorded in the category “Household financial situation over the next 12 months”, which declined the most (5 p.p. YoY). To partially offset mentioned category, the “level of unemployment over the next 12 months” recorded an increase of 5 p.p. on a YoY level, meaning that households expect lower unemployment levels in the following year. We note that the latest available data for Slovenia is available for September, while Croatia’s latest data is available for August 2022.
Overall, the Slovenian Economic climate indicator reported a decrease of 10.2 p.p. YoY, which was primarily driven by a mentioned lower Consumer confidence index (19 p.p. YoY decline). Further, the Confidence indicator in processing activities reported a double-digit decline of 15 p.p. and a decline in the Confidence indicator in construction, which decreased by 10 p.p. YoY. A slight offset to everything mentioned is reported in the Confidence indicator in retail trade. This is the only category that has reported an increase – an increase of 6 p.p. YoY.
Consumer Confidence Index in Slovenia
