Traditionally, August 2024 has been among the months with the most vacations for Croats and Slovenes. However, that doesn’t mean that the action on the Stock Exchanges stopped, nor does it pause our overview of these markets. In today’s overview, we bring you an all-in-one analysis of the Slovenian and Croatian equity markets during the month.
While many people were resting in August, news regarding the semi-annual results for Slovenia, as well as more concrete news such as the failure of the M&A offer of NLB for Addiko kept coming in. In this overview, we’ll detail both how the Slovenian and Croatian equity markets performed during the month.
Croatia
Starting off with Croatia, the total equity turnover in August amounted to EUR 24.3m, representing a decrease of 52% MoM, and 42% YoY. The turnover without blocks amounted to EUR 16.5m, implying an average daily turnover of just EUR 0.8m. During this time, the blue-chip heavy CROBEX10 index recorded a slight decline of 1% MoM.
Monthly equity turnover on ZSE (January 2022 – August 2024, EURm)
Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research
In terms of the most traded stocks, Končar once again led the way with EUR 2.5m, or 15% of the total, followed by Ericsson NT at EUR 1.3m, or 8%, Valamar Riviera at EUR 1.18m, or 7%, HT with EUR 1.05m, or 6.4%, and Podravka at EUR 971.7k, or 5.9%. Combined, the top 5 stocks accounted for 42% of the total equity turnover, while the top 10 accounted for 63%.
Moving on to the performance of individual stocks, August has been as expected a quite stable month for the majority of Croatian blue chips.
Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (August 2024, MoM, %)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
The largest increase was recorded by Valamar Riviera at 2%, followed by Ericsson NT and Končar at 1% each, respectively, while HPB remained unchanged. On the other hand, Atlantic Grupa and Span recorded more noteworthy declines of 10% each, respectively. Despite this monthly slowdown, however, on a YTD basis, some significant changes can be seen.
Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (2024 YTD, %)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
The most noteworthy star here is for sure Končar, who based on the continued good results of the Company, better margins, and a massive backlog recorded a 98% increase YTD. Following them is HPB at 24%, HT at 16%, and Valamar Riviera at 9%, with each of these companies posting solid results due to a better interest rate environment for HPB, cost stabilization, revenue & profit growth for HT, and a good product mix and continued investment plans for Valamar. On the other hand, Atlantic Grupa and Atlantska Plovidba recorded decreases of 10% and 9%, respectively, due to still strained business and high costs, especially of cocoa in 2024 for Atlantic Grupa, as well as the current uncertain geopolitical environment for the shipping industry for Atlantska Plovidba.
Slovenia
Turning our attention to Slovenia, the total equity turnover amounted to 35.4m in August, representing a decline of 41% MoM, and 3% YoY. Meanwhile, the turnover excl. blocks amounted to 32.2m, implying an average daily turnover of 1.5m.
Monthly equity turnover on LJSE (January 2022 – August 2024, EURm)
Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research
In terms of the most traded stocks, NLB leads the way at EUR 11.5m, representing 36% of the entire equity market turnover, followed by Krka at 29%, or EUR 9.2m, Sava Re, at EUR 3m, or 10%, Cinkarna Celje at EUR 1.8m, or 6%, and Telekom Slovenije, at 1.7m, or 5%. Combined, just NLB and Krka account for more than 64% of the total turnover, while the top 5 most traded stocks bring this value to 85%, while the top 8 most traded companies accounted for almost the entire turnover.
Performance of SBITOP constituents (August 2024, MoM, %)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
While also being a more relaxed month as was the case with ZSE, Slovenian blue chips did record some changes as most of them published their H1 results during the month. The largest price increase was recorded by Triglav, which grew by 6%, followed by Cinkarna Celje at 2%, and Sava Re at 1%. On the other hand, on the back of the failed takeover bid for Addiko, which resulted in some price pressure, leading to a 7% decline. After them, we have Telekom Slovenije with a 6% decrease, Petrol with a 4%, as well as Luka Koper at 2%.
Performance of SBITOP constituents (2024 YTD, %)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
Even this slowdown during the month didn’t slow down the positive results for the blue chips on a YTD basis, with all but one recording double-digit growth rates. Leading the way is NLB at 44%, followed by Sava Re at 38%, Petrol at 28%, Cinkarna at 27%, and Krka at 25%. Combined, this led to the main index SBITOP recording a 28% return during the year.
