As of May 2025, Croatia saw a CPI increase of 3.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM, reflecting a continued build-up in underlying price pressures ahead of the tourist season. In Slovenia, inflation grew by 1.8% YoY, while prices remained stable on a monthly basis, highlighting a more contained inflation dynamic. Despite short-term divergences, Slovenia’s inflation remains broadly aligned with Euro area trends, while Croatia’s continues to reflect stronger domestic momentum.
Croatia
According to the latest release from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, annual CPI rose to 3.5% YoY in May, accelerating from 3.1% in April. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.4%, down from 0.6% MoM in April, yet still signalling sustained short-term inflationary momentum as tourism-related demand strengthens.
Breaking down CPI components, services remain the key driver with 6.2% YoY growth, a typical seasonal trend with the summer season approaching. Food, beverages, and tobacco prices rose 5.1% YoY, followed by energy prices at +1.7% YoY. Non-food industrial goods, excluding energy, remained broadly stable on an annual basis.
Croatian CPI YoY growth rate (May 2015 – May 2025, %)
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research
On a monthly level, food, beverages, and tobacco prices rose 1.2%, services increased by 0.6%, while energy prices declined by 1.1%, slightly easing headline inflation. Non-food industrial goods, excluding energy, remained flat MoM.
Slovenia
In Slovenia, CPI grew by 1.8% YoY in May, 0.7 p.p. lower than in the same month last year. On a monthly basis, prices remained stable. Over the past year, services rose by 3.2% YoY, and goods prices increased by 1.0% YoY. Within goods, semi-durable goods rose by 1.6%, non-durable goods by 1.3%, while durable goods fell by 0.7% YoY.
The main contributors to annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.5%, contributing 1.0 p.p.), restaurants and hotels (+5.3%, contributing 0.4 p.p.), and recreation and culture (+3.1%, contributing 0.3 p.p.). In contrast, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (-2.1%, contributing -0.3 p.p.) and transport (-1.9%, contributing -0.3 p.p.) acted as key disinflationary forces.
Slovenian CPI YoY growth rate (May 2015 – May 2025, %)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
The harmonised index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)
The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) shows Croatia posting a 4.3% YoY increase in May, up from April by 0.3 p.p., with a 0.6% MoM rise, keeping it among the Eurozone’s highest-inflation countries and currently the second-highest HICP in the EU. Slovenia, by comparison, recorded 1.9% YoY and -0.1% MoM in May, reinforcing its alignment with Euro area trends and signalling well-anchored inflation dynamics.
The harmonised index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)
Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research
Across the EU, April HICP data showed a 2.2% average in the Euro area. In this context, Slovenia’s 1.9% HICP remains in line with the regional median, while Croatia continues to stand significantly above it.
Overall, this data reinforces Croatia’s role as an outlier in the regional disinflation story, with elevated inflation still underpinned by strong internal demand and a tight labor market. Slovenia, meanwhile, continues to reflect a more cyclical and seasonally influenced pattern, staying broadly aligned with the Euro area trend. The contrast between the two underscores the uneven nature of inflation normalization across the monetary union.