Today, we are bringing you our estimates for the dividends in the region, covering both the SBITOP and CROBEX10 indices. This is based on these companies’ expectations, the trends in the respective industries, as well as our own internal estimates. In general, we expect most of the dividends in 2025 to be either similar or higher than the levels achieved in 2024, based on better performance and financial results of the companies in question, as well as a better economic situation, at least relatively, to the same period last year.

Croatia

CROBEX10 constituents estimated dividend payments (2025, EUR)

Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data

Starting with companies with the largest weight in the CROBEX10 index, Končar paid a dividend of EUR 2.5 per share in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 1%. Historically, the Company has been a consistent dividend payer, distributing dividends ranging from EUR 0.77 per share to EUR 2.5 per share in recent years. Notably, dividends are paid from the parent company, but our dividend projections are based on the Group’s performance. Given the Group’s exceptional results and further optimistic growth coupled with the parent company’s strong cash position, we believe that our estimate of EUR 2.9 DPS for 2025 is achievable.

Next, HT paid a dividend of EUR 1.53 per share in 2024, marking the highest dividend payment in over a decade. This represents a payout ratio of 95.3% of realized profit and a 39.1% increase compared to the previous year. Similar to Končar, the dividends are paid from the parent company, HT d.d., but our projections are based on the Group’s performance. With solid results expected and a strong cash position maintained, we estimate a EUR 1.68 DPS for 2025, continuing the trend of returning value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Following HT, Podravka recorded solid growth in the first nine months of 2024, a trend expected to continue in the last quarter. In addition to significant capital investments during the year, the Company has increased profitability and successfully managed its operations. As a result, we estimate a dividend payment of EUR 3.5 DPS, attributable to the profit realized in 2024.

Meanwhile, Adris achieved strong profitability improvements in the first nine months of 2024, driven primarily by excellent results from Croatia Osiguranje and further supported by the tourism segment. These improvements are expected to continue for the full year, leading to an estimated dividend payment of approximately EUR 3 DPS for both regular and preferred shares, representing a 50% dividend payout ratio according to our estimated net profit.

For Valamar, we anticipate a 5% increase in dividends, amounting to EUR 0.23 DPS, supported by expected profitability growth in the coming years. This growth is driven by a greater focus on the luxury segment and upgrades to hotel capacity and other facilities. The high-end segment that Valamar targets is less influenced by macroeconomic changes, as tourists in this segment typically have higher budgets. Valamar has also announced a EUR 2 million share buyback program for 2025, which will further support the share price during the period.

When it comes to Atlantic Grupa, uncertainties and risks related to the rising prices of production materials, such as cocoa and raw coffee, remain. However, higher sales and price increases, although slowing down, are partially offsetting these challenges, supported by energy savings. These factors resulted in strong profitability recovery during the first nine months of 2024, expected to extend to the full year. Consequently, we estimate a EUR 1.5 DPS for 2025, representing a 25% increase in dividend payment.

HPB has already approved a EUR 23.9 DPS dividend in two tranches (EUR 11.95 each), with the first payment scheduled for January 7, 2025 and the second for June 26, 2025. This decision aligns with the Croatian Government’s directive as HPB is majority state-owned, contributing to the state budget.

Ericsson NT significantly increased its dividend payout ratio to 90% in 2023, a level we expect the Company will maintain. This reflects Ericsson NT’s commitment to being a strong(er) dividend p(l)ayer. For 2025, we anticipate a dividend payout of over EUR 10 per share.

Finally, for Span, based on the Company’s dividend policy and expected FY 2025 results, we estimate a dividend of approximately EUR 0.8 per share, a substantial increase from the EUR 0.3 DPS paid in 2024, driven by slight improvements in results.

Dividend yield estimates of Croatian blue chips (2025, %)*

Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
*DY calculated on the closing price on 10 January 2025

Slovenia

SBITOP constituents estimated dividend payments (2025, EUR)

Source: InterCapital Research estimates

In Slovenia, we expect Krka to pay a dividend of EUR 7.9 per share in 2025, representing a 5% increase compared to the previous year. Krka has consistently been an above-average dividend payer, often exceeding expectations. Our estimate is based on the Company’s targeted payout ratio of 65%, combined with its M&A activities and financial investments while maintaining a strong cash position.

For Petrol, predicting the dividend is particularly challenging given the uncertainties in the energy sector. Although the situation improved in 2024, and profitability is expected to continue increasing based on the first nine months of 2024, we anticipate a slightly lower payout ratio of 48.5% for prudency. Nevertheless, this would translate to a 16.67% increase in the dividend amount, resulting in an estimated EUR 2.1 DPS for 2025.

For NLB, we expect a dividend of EUR 11.12 per share in 2025, slightly exceeding the payment made in 2024. This payment will likely be distributed in two tranches over the year. Our projection assumes that the Group will raise its payout ratio to 45% in 2025. Based on the company’s current results, this dividend payment appears achievable.

Meanwhile, Triglav is anticipated to pay a dividend of EUR 2.5 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of around 50%, consistent with historical levels. This would represent an increase from the 2024 DPS of EUR 1.75. The lower payout in 2024 was due to natural disasters and supplementary healthcare changes in Slovenia, which negatively impacted profitability.

For Sava Re, we estimate a DPS of EUR 1.75 in 2025, consistent with the EUR 1.7 DPS paid in 2024. This aligns with the Company’s stated payout ratio of 35-45% as outlined in its business plan.

Luka Koper has published its 2024 performance estimate, forecasting a net profit of EUR 50.2 million. In line with its dividend payment policy of allocating 50% of distributable net profit to dividends, we estimate a DPS of EUR 2.1 for 2025. This represents a 5% increase compared to last year’s dividend.

For Telekom Slovenije, we expect profitability improvements in 2024. Given that approximately 90% of distributable profit is paid out as dividends, we estimate a DPS of EUR 7.2, marking a 16% increase compared to the previous year’s dividend.

Cinkarna Celje is expected to achieve a net profit of EUR 20 million for FY 2024, representing a strong YoY increase due to a low base effect. Based on its five-year strategic plan (2024 – 2028), which targets a 50% payout ratio, we estimate a proposed dividend of EUR 2.5 DPS. This is lower than the EUR 4.1 DPS paid in 2024, which was considered a one-off compensation after no dividends were distributed in 2022. The company is expected to approve the 2025 dividend in February, consistent with past practices.

Lastly, for Equinox, we anticipate a dividend in 2025 similar to that paid in 2024. With net income projected to remain stable YoY, we estimate a payout ratio of 65%, in line with the Company’s distributions in 2023 and 2024. Equinox also maintains a share buyback program, which could influence dividend payments. However, given Slovenian laws’ preference for dividend payments over share buybacks, significant changes to the dividend policy are unlikely.

Dividend yield estimates of Slovenian blue chips (2025, %)*

Source: InterCapital Research estimates
*DY calculated on the closing price on 10 January 2025