Today, we will be glancing at Adris grupa, as they published their 9M results last Thursday. The results are positive across the board and among the strongest in the Group’s recent history. Looking at the broad numbers, revenue is up 8% YoY, EBITDA up +17% and net income to majority stands at EUR 134m, up 14% YoY.

Before we get to the numbers themselves, I would like to start with some interesting things happening with the two share classes on the stock exchange. If you don’t know, Adris grupa has two share classes – ordinary and preferred – and lately they have been behaving like siblings who stopped talking to each other. At the last closing prices, Adris is valued at EUR c. 2.58bn, of which the ordinary shares (ADRS CZ) account for EUR 1.83bn and the preferred shares (ADRS2 CZ) for EUR 0.75bn. That is how the market cap splits, but liquidity tells the opposite story, as the smaller sibling takes almost all the turnover: ADRS2 traded on average around EUR 259k per day over the last year, while ADRS traded only around EUR 23k per day, or EUR 5.8m in the whole year against EUR 64.1m in ADRS2 (both incl. block trades). This is not new for ADRS, which has traded between EUR 17k and 33k per day in most years since 2018 (outside the years with large block trades), while ADRS2 turnover picked up from around EUR 56k per day in 2022 to EUR 234k so far this year. ADRS is up 60% YTD and 141% over the last 10 years, while ADRS2 is up 35% YTD and 86% over 10 years.

ADRS and ADRS2 share price (Nov 2016- Oct 2026, EUR)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

In the chart below, we can see how the gap between the two classes has moved over the last decade. The result is that last month we saw the widest gap between the two in at least ten years, when on 8 October ADRS2 traded at a 45.3% discount to its older, ordinary brother. On the last day when both shares traded (29 October), the discount stood at 40%, more than twice the 10-year average of 18%, measured on the days when both classes traded. Between 2017 and 2022 the discount moved between 5% and 23%, with yearly averages of 9-16%, but it started widening in mid-2023 and has not looked back since, as the yearly average rose from 18% in 2023 to 26% in 2024, 29% in 2025 and 32% so far in 2026. Nothing in the reported numbers explains this, as both classes receive the same dividend (EUR 3.12 per share for 2025, paid in July) and have the same claim on profit, so the difference comes down to the voting right attached to the ordinary share and, as we will see below, to how (little) each class actually trades.

ADRS2 discount to ADRS ( Nov 2016- Oct 2026)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

Since the beginning of May, ADRS went from EUR 130 to EUR 190 (+46%) on total turnover of around EUR 3.6m, including a single block trade of EUR 0.6m. Over the same period, ADRS2 rose from EUR 89.80 to EUR 111 (+24%) on turnover of EUR 35.8m, ten times more, so the share class that actually trades rose half as much, and the discount widened from 31% at the end of April to around 40% now. The results certainly helped, as Adris grew sales by 9%, EBITDA by 20% and net profit to equity holders by 9% in H1 2026, and the 9M numbers were even stronger. We do not have a target price for Adris, so we will not comment on whether the current price is fundamentally justified, but the results speak for themselves. Still, we would read the move as a mix of three things: solid fundamentals, a thin ordinary share where a few trades go a long way, and some media coverage that may have fired up retail investors.

And the earnings were good. In 9M 2026, Adris recorded sales of EUR 964.7m (+8% YoY), EBITDA of EUR 252.1m (+17% YoY) and net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent of EUR 134.2m (+14% YoY). Looking at the last three years, sales grew at an average rate of 10% per year since 9M 2023, while EBITDA grew at around 16% and net profit to equity holders at around 15% per year, so profitability has been improving every year, not just in 2026. What does not surprise us is that insurance kept growing at around 10% YoY and that tourism again grew faster on price than on volume (sales +7% YoY with 3% more units sold). What did surprise us is the speed of the Cromaris turnaround, as its EBITDA margin went from 8.4% in 9M 2025 to 19.5% in 9M 2026, the highest in the period we look at, despite 11% lower volumes.

Now, let’s go through the segments one by one.

Adris grupa sales, EBITDA and net profit to majority (9M 2023 – 9M 202, EURm)

Source: Adris grupa, InterCapital Research

Insurance (Croatia osiguranje) is the largest and the most consistent part of the Group, and no wonder, as people do not stop insuring their cars and homes because of whatever is happening in the world around them – the policy needs renewing every year either way. Segment sales grew from EUR 376.3m in 9M 2023 to EUR 533.8m in 9M 2026 (12% average annual growth), while net profit doubled from EUR 32.4m to EUR 64.7m. Consolidated insurance revenue grew by 10% YoY to EUR 489m in 9M 2026, market share rose by 0.3 p.p. to 28.3%, and the digital channel (incl. LAQO) grew premiums by 31% YoY. The net margin of the segment is, however, flattening at 12.1% in 9M 2026 against 11.9% a year earlier, after much larger increases in 2024 and 2025. We think the top line can keep growing at high single digits to the teens, depending on pricing, the motor market and the weather, while further profit growth will depend more on the investment result (EUR 57.2m, +13% YoY) and on claims, where weather events remain the main swing factor (Croatia osiguranje paid the first claims after the August wildfires near Omiš on the same day they were reported).

Tourism (Maistra and HUP Zagreb) grew sales from EUR 274.5m to EUR 330.7m over the three years (6% per year), mostly through prices and the repositioning of the portfolio, as 90% of capacity is now at four or five stars. Anyone who has ordered a coffee on the Rovinj waterfront this summer will not be shocked by the pricing part. The reported EBITDA margin jumped to 43.7%, but this includes a c. EUR 11.6m capital gain from the intra-Group asset sale, and on an underlying basis (EBITDA EUR 133m) the margin stands at 40.2%, practically the same level as in each of the last three years (39-40%). In other words, Maistra has been passing cost inflation (labour costs at Group level +13% YoY, minimum wage +8%) on to its guests, but not more than that. We should also keep in mind that the fourth quarter is, as every Istrian knows, the quiet season, and for tourism it is loss-making (EBITDA of EUR -12.0m and net loss of EUR 40.0m in Q4 2025), so the full-year margin will be well below the 9M figure.

Food (Cromaris) is the biggest turnaround story in the Group, and the one we enjoyed reading about the most. In 2025, reported EBITDA fell to EUR 10.5m and net profit to EUR 2.1m, partly as EU funds and subsidies dropped to EUR 0.3m from EUR 2.2m, while the sales portfolio and customer mix were restructured during the year. In 9M 2026 this is visible in the numbers, with 9M 2026 EBITDA of EUR 17.1m (2.3x YoY) and net profit of EUR 9.3m (9M 2025: EUR 1.2m), on flat sales of EUR 87.6m and 11% lower volumes due to the exit from unprofitable segments. Differentiated products now make up 40% of sales. We view the improvement as structural, but the growth rates will normalize from Q4 onwards, as the restructuring was completed during 2025. Energy, the newest segment (50% stakes with ENCRO in one wind farm and five solar plants), recorded sales of EUR 14.9m and EBITDA of EUR 13.4m (both +36% YoY), with net income of EUR 6.7m. Since the plants have operated at full capacity only since August 2025, the YoY growth largely reflects a base effect, which will fade from Q4. Energy remains small (around 5% of Group EBITDA), but it is stable and high-margin, it covers almost 80% of the Group’s electricity needs through VPPA contracts, and, unlike a hotel, it does not need guests.

Adris grupa margins, 9M 2023 – 9M 2026 (%)

Source: Adris grupa, InterCapital Research

On the cash side, operating cash flow reached EUR 227.5m in 9M 2026 (+22% YoY), comfortably covering capex of EUR 101.5m. Capex has stayed above EUR 100m per year (EUR 145m in 2024 and EUR 147m in 2025), mostly in tourism, and management again expects tourism investments to exceed EUR 100m in 2026, with Hotel Marjan in Split as the largest project, alongside the Koversada and Amarin camps and the renovated Hotel Monte Mulini. Borrowings rose to EUR 415.7m after EUR 50m of new loans, but net debt stands at only EUR 101m, or 0.4x trailing EBITDA. Adris paid EUR 49.7m in dividends this year (EUR 3.12 per share, +4% YoY), and the balance sheet leaves ample room for both the investment cycle and the dividend. By our calculations, at the current prices of both share classes, Adris trades at a TTM P/E of 26.7x, EV/EBITDA of 11.9x and P/B of 1.6x.

As for the outlook, management does not publish numerical guidance, which is nothing new for Adris, and for a holding with four very different businesses, a single number would probably tell us less than the segment commentary does anyway. The message in the 9M report is that the investment cycle in tourism continues, together with transformation, digitalisation and cost discipline across the Group. The tone on the environment has turned more cautious than in H1, pointing to the ECB rate hike in September, Croatian inflation of 4.7% in September, rising labour costs and the risk of tighter financing conditions. Our view is that Adris will continue to grow, but we would not extrapolate the 2026 growth rates into 2027, as the Cromaris and energy base effects will fade, tourism margins have been stable rather than rising, and the insurance net margin is flattening. The next leg of growth should come from the new tourism capacity (Marjan) and from continued growth in insurance, while cost inflation remains the main risk. Just as an illustration, and not as an estimate, if Q4 2026 were to repeat Q4 2025, full-year 2026 EBITDA would reach around EUR 254m and net profit to majority around EUR 97m.

All in all, Adris delivered its strongest 9M results in the period we look at, with profit growth in all four segments and Group margins up for the third year in a row. The business is doing its job, and the share price, at least in the ordinary shares, has been doing a bit more than that.