Last week, Q3 2026 ended, allowing us to take a look at how regional equity indices performed during the quarter and during the 9M period of the year. Furthermore, in this blog, we bring you the drivers of these changes, as well as a comparison with historical performance, on both the Q3 and 9M basis.

Q3 2026 can be described as both a time of calm but also as a time of turmoil, depending on the country and sector the companies operate in. During the quarter, the instability in the Middle East continued, driving up energy prices, thus fueling inflation. While the conflicts started earlier (during Q1 2026, in February), the spillover effect is still present, as the underlying factors for the conflict have not been resolved. Furthermore, Ukrainian attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure also played a role, especially when it comes to refined products. In fact, from the end of 2025 to 29 September 2026, oil prices grew from USD 61.35/bbl (Brent) to approx. USD 114/bbl, an increase of 86%, while WTI increased from USD 57.26/bbl to USD 96.16/bbl, also a significant growth of 68%. Compared to the prices 10 years ago (September 2016), Brent oil grew by 136%, while WTI increased by 102%.

Brent & WTI daily spot prices (USD/bbl, 2010 – 29 September 2026)

Source: EIA, InterCapital Research

These shocks had direct effects on the companies’ operations, increasing energy input costs, thus driving OPEX and pressuring margins, leading to a decision by companies to either try to improve efficiency and thus mitigate the increase, implement cost-saving methods, or, most commonly, raise product prices. By industry, this movement was supportive for energy producers and refiners benefiting from stronger refining margins, but at the same time, negative for airlines, tourism, households, logistics, and energy-intensive industries. Thus, we saw more positive movement with indices which had a higher share of the former, while the opposite occurred with indices which had the latter.

As a result of these developments, central banks started raising interest rates to combat inflation, with the ECB raising its deposit facility rate twice during the year to 2.5%, while the Fed also recently announced a rise by 25 bps to a 3.75% – 4.0% range. These moves themselves are putting more pressure on financing costs, both for governments and companies, although the full effect will take a couple of months to be visible. At the same time, it is supportive for banks from the yield perspective, but this will also influence deposit repricing and funding costs, and may lead to weaker loan demand or higher NPL ratios.

Within Europe, the conflict in Ukraine is also supporting a strong defence drive. European weapon producers have already benefited greatly from this, although growth recently has been more subdued, or they even recorded decreases, as, in our view, this new situation is increasingly treated as a “new normal”. In this context, we take a look at how particular markets performed, focusing on the regional markets. Individual stock returns refer to share-price changes unless dividends are explicitly included. The weights presented refer to the latest available observations and indicate the companies’ current importance within the indices, while historical contributions also depend on changes in weights and membership during the period.

Croatia

CROBEX10, the main Croatian index we’re analyzing today, recorded a modest 0.4% gain in Q3 2026, while a more substantial 17.7% increase was recorded on a YTD basis. It should be noted that the CROBEX10 figures refer to the price index, and thus, dividends are not taken into account here.

CROBEX10 return distributions: Q3 and 9M, 2010–2026 (%)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

The slight increase for CROBEX10 during Q3 is actually a running theme if we look at the historical period, with most Q3s placed in the 0-10% gain period, even in years where either large increases or decreases were recorded. When looking at the 9M period, the story is even more pronounced, with CROBEX10 as likely to record a -10% to 0% change as it is to record an increase of between 10% and 20%.

Coming back to the quarter itself, Valamar Riviera recorded an increase of 6.1% compared to the previous quarter, alongside continued revenue growth and investments into its portfolio. H1 operating revenue increased by 10%, although adjusted EBITDA deteriorated due to pre-opening costs and the timing of investment activities, with the new facilities expected to contribute more during the peak tourist season. Outside CROBEX10, Ericsson NT also recorded a 5.9% increase in Q3, having been removed from the index in March. Adris grupa and Končar follow closely behind, with increases of 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, with Adris recording broad growth across the companies it operates (tourism, insurance, food production, green energy), while Končar remains the star of the index, recording strong operating results, growth, and improved backlog.

In general, other companies recorded mixed results, but this can also be attributed (besides macro and fundamentals) to equity turnover; Croatia does record a lot of concentration in the larger names, so smaller companies may trade less frequently, but lower liquidity and larger spreads between bid and ask prices can also produce substantial price swings.

In general, around half the constituents recorded growth during this period, while the underperforming ones were also tied to geopolitical and economic dynamics within Europe (such as a 10.8% decrease recorded by AD Plastik in Q3, which, despite improving operating results, is tied to the car industry in Europe, a sector that has been suffering for a while now).

However, if we take a longer time period, the situation improves drastically. Končar recorded an increase of 54.3%, and given that it has over 20% weight in the index, it was one of the largest contributors to the index’s 9M performance. Many other blue chips recorded double-digit growth, with Valamar growing by 34%, Adris grupa by 32.6%, while AD Plastik remained up 21.6% during 9M despite its Q3 decline.

Slovenia

Slovenia’s main index, SBITOP, recorded larger increases on both the Q3 and 9M levels, at 3.3% and 23.8% during the period. The Q3 increase, however, was smaller than the one recorded in Q3 2025, with much of the index’s exposure concentrated in Krka, NLB, and Petrol, which combined make up the majority of the index.

SBITOP return distributions: Q3, 2003–2026, and 9M, 2004–2026 (%)

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

In other words, a lot of the gains were concentrated in pharma, banks, and retail oil&gas distributors, and as such, the performance of the index is intrinsically tied to these sectors, even though there are other sectors within the index (insurance, industrials, real estate, telecoms, etc.).

On the relative level, the largest relative increase of the blue chips was recorded by the newest addition to the SBITOP index – Vzajemna, an insurance company, which recorded an increase of 35.4%. H1 gross written premiums increased by 16.1%, although this was not accompanied by an improvement in the reported bottom line, with the Group recording a small net loss and extraordinary items affecting the comparison with the previous year. Salus, also one of the newer additions, operates in wholesale pharmaceuticals and recorded a 13.9% increase. Equinox, which owns several large and small hotels and other types of real estate in Ljubljana, recorded an almost 10% gain.

In other words, these companies, while smaller in their scope, did contribute positively to the index’s returns. Coming back to the larger names, Petrol recorded a 5.8% gain in Q3, and this was despite the energy commodities’ price growth. As a large part of Petrol’s business involves the distribution of final products, higher procurement costs and restricted retail pricing negatively impacted the Company’s EBITDA and bottom line, which declined by 9% and 24%, respectively, during H1 2026, despite 12% higher revenue. Even so, the stock performed well, although it should be noted that it has already faced a lot of pressure in the last couple of years exactly due to the energy commodities’ market dynamics.

Krka recorded a 3.2% gain during this period, with top, operating, and bottom lines improving, with the Company effectively managing the geopolitical turmoil. Insurers, Triglav and Sava Re, also recorded a modest gain of around 2.2% each, as the sector continues to expand.

On the 9M basis, however, the story changes. Telekom Slovenije, which recorded only a 0.7% increase during Q3, grew by 58% during the 9M period, on the back of improved results, although the growth in fundamentals was far lower than the capital gain on the stock. Luka Koper is another example of this discrepancy, with a 1.4% decline during Q3, but a 46.5% gain during 9M. The Company continues to invest heavily in its port infrastructure to address capacity constraints and expand its operations, while higher container throughput and storage revenues supported both top- and bottom-line improvements.

Most other companies recorded double-digit gains, with Krka growing by 27.3%, Sava Re by 25%, NLB by 24.4%, Petrol by 19.4%, and Triglav by 12.2%. Examining NLB’s results more closely, the Group recorded a modest 0.9% gain in Q3, while the longer time period gain was accompanied by continued loan growth and improving NII and NFCI, with risk contained. NIM stabilised on a quarterly basis, although it remained lower YoY and H1 net income declined. ECB interest rate hikes also improved the outlook for interest income, while developments surrounding the Group’s Addiko bid remained relevant during Q3, with the offer failing in August after insufficient shareholder acceptances.

Putting the quarterly and 9M index performance in the historical context, SBITOP’s Q3 returns are most frequently placed in the 0–10% gain range, accounting for 9 of the 24 observations in the available sample. On the 9M basis, >20% is the largest individual category, accounting for 9 of the 23 observations, although this is still less than half of the total. Negative 9M returns were recorded in 8 of those periods, with the remaining 6 placed in the 0–20% gain ranges.

Romania

For Romania’s main index, BET, Q3 brought a decline of 4.3%, reversing a bit of the gain recorded during 9M, where the growth is a much more substantial 27.2%. By companies, Q3 recorded a similar trend as in Slovenia, with the newest additions recording the largest relative increases. These include the newest addition in the index, Electro-Alfa International, an industrial producer, which recorded an increase of 36% in Q3 compared to the end of Q2 2026, driven by an 18% increase in revenue and 8% growth in net income, as demand for electrical equipment, energy-infrastructure projects, and export deliveries supported results, although 9M data is missing as the Company only IPOed during the year. Electro-Alfa joined BET on 21 September, so its full-quarter share-price increase should be distinguished from its contribution to the index after inclusion. Cris-Tim Family Holding, another new addition, a food producer (cold meats and cuts, mostly), grew by 32%, supported by improving operating results (revenue +6%, EBITDA +28%, net income +34%).

BET index performance comparison (Q3, left, 9M, right, 1998 – 2026, %)

Source: BVB, InterCapital Research

Electrica also recorded a solid 21.5% gain, supported by a 7.7% EBITDA and 8.6% net income improvement. 5 more companies recorded increases, ranging from 0% to 11%, although many companies were under pressure and recorded decreases. The largest decrease was recorded by Nuclearelectrica, which declined by 32%, although this one is tied more to sentiment; as an example, the Company’s H1 net income grew by 36.6%, so the strong decline cannot be explained by weaker H1 earnings alone. The Company’s substantial investment programme and future cash requirements remain relevant valuation considerations.

Many other companies recorded double-digit decreases as well, with Transgaz declining by 24%, Sphera Franchise Group (a former member, recently excluded) declining by 20.3%, BRD by 20%, MedLife by 15.7%, and Transelectrica by 13.7%. The country in general has been facing political issues (Government collapsing in May, and a new one is yet to be formed), fiscal issues (fiscal deficit, inflation growth), which also weighed on the overall sentiment, although previous years have proved that political and macroeconomic problems do not prevent the Romanian equity market from recording strong gains.

9M’s performance is far better, with Cris-Tim growing by 118%, Electrica by 88.6%, Premier Energy by 68.5%, and Romgaz by 54%. Out of the 20 current constituents, 15 recorded gains and 4 declined during 9M, while Electro-Alfa International does not have a full 9M comparison. This shows that the Q3 decline did not erase the strong gains recorded earlier in the year.

Hungary

Hungary’s main index, BUX, was one of the best performers on both the Q3 2026 and 9M 2026 basis, increasing by 3.8% and 30.8%, respectively. We would like to note that BUX is a total return index, meaning that, unlike the indices described above, dividends are supporting higher returns here too. One other feature of the index is its concentration, with the top 4 largest names, i.e. OTP, MOL, Richter, and Magyar Telekom, accounting for more than 92% of the index based on the estimated weights as of 1 October, meaning these companies largely determine the index’s direction.

BUX return distributions: Q3, 1991–2026, and 9M, 1992–2026 (%)

Source: BSE, InterCapital Research

In terms of the Q3 performance, MOL was the main support for the index, growing by 34.4% during Q3, and with its weight of over 22%, it was enough to offset much of the pressure elsewhere. The Company benefited from the same energy market dynamics described above, with higher oil and gas prices, strong refining margins, and improved petrochemical margins supporting its results. Q2 net income reached USD 786m, although fuel and margin caps remained a negative for the retail segment. Furthermore, during July, MOL acquired a 35% stake in the Aphrodite gas field in Cyprus, expanding its upstream portfolio. When including dividends, MOL’s Q3 return was even higher, at approx. 43%.

Richter recorded a more modest 2.7% gain in Q3, supported by the growth of Vraylar, biosimilars, and efficiency gains. In H1, pharma revenue grew by 8.7% at constant FX, while pharma Clean EBIT grew by 21% on the same basis, leading the Company to raise its FY profitability guidance. However, the stronger forint also played a role; reported pharma revenue declined slightly, while net income decreased by 14% due to FX losses. In other words, the underlying op. improvement was greater than the reported results have shown.

On the flip side, OTP, the largest member in the index (approx. 43% weight), declined by 7.1% during Q3, limiting the index’s growth. This occurred despite continued lending growth and an improved NIM, which reached 4.6% in H1, with NII up 13%. Special taxes and rising OPEX remained pressures on profitability, while the agreement to acquire Luminor, in July 2026, would expand the Group into the Baltic markets, subject to regulatory approvals. As such, the quarterly decline cannot be explained by weaker lending or margins alone.

Lastly, Magyar Telekom also recorded a decline of 4% in Q3, although H1 net income to majority increased by 4.5% YoY, and free cash flow excl. spectrum payments improved. Service revenue growth and cost efficiencies supported results, but weaker system integration and IT sales, as well as FX movements, limited top-line growth. On the 9M basis, however, the stock grew by 42%, while the dividends further increased this to over 51%.

The 9M period was also far more positive for other large names, with MOL growing by 69%, Richter by 25%, and OTP by 21.7%. When including dividends, this grows to over 79% for MOL, 32% for Richter, and 25% for OTP. Compared to previous quarters, Q3 2026 falls in the 0-10% gain range, which remains the most common outcome since 2009, and improved on the 1.2% gain recorded in Q3 2025. 9M 2026’s increase is even more substantial, at 30.8%, exceeding the 24.6% gain during 9M 2025 and representing the 2nd highest 9M gain, after 2009.

Poland

Poland’s main broad-market index, WIG, recorded a 16% gain in Q3 2026, while on a 9M basis, the growth was more than double, at 34.2%, making it the strongest performer among the regional indices in both periods. WIG does include dividends, like BUX, as compared to the other 3 indices, which, in their presented form, do not. While the index is broad, the top 20 largest names account for almost 77% of the weight within the index, based on the 2 October weight snapshot.

WIG return distributions: Q3, 1991–2026, and 9M, 1992–2026 (%)

Source: GPW, InterCapital Research

Banks played a significant role in the index, with PKO BP, Pekao, and Erste Bank Polska recording 20.2%, 22.8%, and 23.8% gains during Q3, respectively. PKO BP, the largest constituent with a 10.4% weight, reported H1 net income of PLN 5.3bn, supported by 13.9% growth in financing, stable NII, and 10.1% growth in NFCI. The operating picture was not uniformly positive across the sector, however; Pekao recorded lower H1 net income due to higher corporate income tax, lower market rates, and higher contributions to the Bank Guarantee Fund, despite growing loans and fees. In other words, the share price recovery was broader than the improvement in reported earnings.

Consumer companies also supported the growth, with Allegro increasing by 33.9% and LPP by 35.9% during Q3. Allegro recorded a 12% increase in Polish gross merchandise value in Q2, alongside improving profitability and an upgraded FY outlook, while its SBB provided additional support. LPP benefited from stronger store and online sales, with fiscal Q2 revenue growing by 18% at constant FX to PLN 6.6bn, alongside the continued expansion of Sinsay. Given that these companies have a 6.9% and 4.3% weight in the index, respectively, their gains provided a meaningful boost to the index’s performance.

Among other large names, PGE recorded one of the strongest relative increases, at 60.4% during Q3, while XTB increased by 41.2%. The latter benefited from the volatile market environment and rapidly expanding client base, with preliminary H1 revenue growing by 79.7% and net income by 150.5%, supported by higher profitability per CFD lot. However, due to their lower weights (1.8% and 1.6%, respectively), these large relative increases had less impact than the combined movements of the largest banks and consumer companies.

The situation was different for KGHM, which declined by 0.5% during Q3, despite H1 revenue and EBITDA growth of 41% and 89%, respectively, supported by higher copper and silver prices. With a 6.1% weight, the flat share price performance limited its contribution during the quarter, although on a 9M basis, the stock still grew by 17.4%. Here we can see another example of the discrepancy between improving fundamentals and short-term equity performance, as stronger earnings do not necessarily translate into further gains in the same quarter.

On the 9M basis, however, Orlen was one of the largest supports for WIG, with a 52% price increase and its 9.2% weight in the index. Its Q2 LIFO-based EBITDA reached PLN 13.9bn, supported by upstream and downstream market conditions, energy operations, and strong international retail results. Allegro and PKO BP also recorded strong gains, at 63.2% and 45.6%, respectively, while Erste Bank Polska and Pekao grew by 46.3% and 37%, respectively. There was one standout in relative terms among the top 20 names, XTB, which grew by 110.2%, although its smaller weight limited its overall influence.

Putting the index performance in the historical context, Q3 2026 falls into the 10 – 20% gain range, compared to only 1.6% growth in Q3 2025, representing the strongest Q3 since 2009. The 9M increase of 34.2% was also slightly above the 33.7% recorded during 9M 2025 and was the second-highest in the 2009 – 2026 comparison period, after 2009. As such, it could be said that Poland’s results stand out both among the regional markets this year and against its own historical performance.