With the 2026 dividend season approaching, we are bringing you our dividend estimates for all SBITOP index constituents, based on 2025 full-year results, companies’ dividend policies, and our internal projections. The SBITOP index has delivered a return of approximately 42% over the past twelve months, and the underlying companies continue to increase their shareholder distributions, with a weighted average DPS growth of around 13.4% expected in 2026. Broadly speaking, we expect dividend per share growth across the board, continuing the trend of steadily rising payouts from Slovenian blue chips.
Before looking ahead, it is worth placing the numbers in context. In 2024, the SBITOP index carried a weighted average dividend yield of 7.3%, calculated on share prices the day before each company’s dividend proposal. While genuinely attractive, this figure was elevated by catch-up effects at two constituents. Cinkarna Celje, which had been restricted from paying a dividend in 2023 due to conditions tied to state subsidies, distributed EUR 4.10 per share once those restrictions lapsed, translating into a yield of nearly 20%. Similarly, Telekom Slovenije chose not to distribute a dividend in 2023 for internal reasons, and in 2024 returned to shareholders with a combined payout from current and retained earnings of EUR 6.20 per share, implying a yield above 10%. Importantly, excluding these two names, every other SBITOP constituent increased its dividend per share between 2024 and 2025, with an average DPS growth of approximately 21%. This is not a story of declining shareholder returns; rather, the 2025 and 2026 dividend yields represent a normalization from the inflated 2024 base, while actual per-share distributions have continued to grow.
In 2025, the SBITOP dividend yield came in at 5.9%, reflecting regular, recurring distributions from current-year profits without any of the one-off effects present a year earlier. We consider this a much cleaner reference point. For 2026, we estimate the SBITOP dividend yield at approximately 4.5% based on closing prices as of 20 March 2026. Excluding Salus, which enters the index for the first time this year, the yield stands at 4.3% (for the represented annual comparison). The aggregate weighted DPS across the index grew by 15.1% in 2025 and is set to grow by a further 13.4% in 2026 with our projections, meaning the year-on-year yield compression is entirely a reflection of share price appreciation. To put that in perspective, the weighted average share price increase from the day before the 2025 dividend proposals to 20 March 2026 stands at approximately 47%. Companies like Sava Re (+78%), Luka Koper (+94%), and NLB (+63%) have seen particularly strong re-ratings, which naturally compresses dividend yields even as absolute payouts continue to rise.
Estimated/actual dividend per share of select Slovenian companies (2026, EUR)
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
It is worth noting that the SBITOP index has experienced a correction of around 2.4% over the past week, which means some of the dividend yields presented in this text appear somewhat higher than they would at our target prices. Our estimates refer to dividend per share figures, which are based on our earnings projections and each company’s stated dividend policy. The implied dividend yields, however, depend on prevailing market prices and will fluctuate with market conditions. All yields referenced in this text are calculated using closing prices as of 20 March 2026, the last trading day before publication.
Starting with the index heavyweights, Krka pursues a long-term strategy of stable dividend growth and allocates at least 50% of the majority shareholder’s net profit to dividend payouts. For 2026, we expect the company to increase its dividend to EUR 9.50 per share, up 15.2% YoY, implying a dividend yield of 4.2% at current levels. Over the past two years, the company has maintained a payout ratio above 70%, and we believe this trend will continue in 2026. This continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders goes hand in hand with Krka’s ongoing investment in capacity expansion, demonstrating that the company can do both simultaneously. The absolute level of the distribution is substantial given Krka’s dominant index weight of nearly 30%. The share price has risen 34% since the 2025 dividend proposal.
NLB Group, the second-largest index constituent at 20.0%, targets a dividend payout ratio of 50 to 60% of the previous year’s profit and intends to distribute dividends in two instalments. We expect the bank to maintain this two-tranche structure in 2026, with a total estimated distribution of EUR 13.68 per share, up 6.4% YoY. At a current price of EUR 210, this implies a dividend yield of 6.5%, the highest among SBITOP large caps. NLB has paid dividends in two instalments in both 2024 and 2025, providing investors with yield spread across two payment dates. The bank’s share price has appreciated 63% since the 2025 dividend proposal.
For Petrol, the company’s 2021 to 2025 strategy targeted a dividend payout of around 50% of group net profit, while the new Petrol 2030 strategy raises this target to 60% with a progressive payout. We estimate a dividend of EUR 2.50 per share, representing a strong 19% YoY increase and a dividend yield of 4.8%. This is one of the largest DPS increases in the index and reflects both Petrol’s improving earnings trajectory and the shift toward a more generous distribution policy. The share price has gained 32% since the 2025 proposal.
Among the insurers, Sava Re’s dividend policy targets a payout of 35 to 45% of net profit, the lowest stated range among SBITOP constituents. Despite this, the company stands out with the highest expected DPS growth of 22%, with our estimate at EUR 2.75 per share. The stock’s price performance has been remarkable, rising 78% since the 2025 dividend proposal and more than 160% since mid-2024, which compresses the dividend yield to 3.3% despite the substantial distribution increase. Triglav pursues what it describes as an “attractive and sustainable” dividend policy, with a minimum payout of 50% of consolidated net earnings and a commitment not to reduce dividends below the previous year’s level. For 2026, we expect the insurer to raise its dividend to EUR 3.00 per share, a 7.1% increase following the significant 60% step-up in 2025. The implied yield of 4.8% remains solid, with the share price up 34% since the 2025 proposal.
Luka Koper’s dividend policy allocates up to 50% of net profit to dividends. We expect the port operator to pay EUR 2.325 per share, up 10.7% YoY, implying a dividend yield of 2.7%. The yield compression here has been the sharpest in the index, with the share price nearly doubling (+94%) since the 2025 dividend proposal.
Turning to smaller constituents, Telekom Slovenije’s strategic business plan calls for dividend payments in the amount of 30 to 50% of group net profit, with proposals also considering the group’s financial position and investment needs. We expect the company to distribute EUR 4.39 per share, a 9.6% increase from the normalized 2025 level of EUR 4.00. With the 2024 catch-up effect now fully behind us, this trajectory reflects steady, sustainable growth. The implied yield stands at 4.0%, with the share price up 27% since the 2025 proposal.
Implied dividend yields of select Slovenian companies (2026, %)*
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
*dividend yield calculated on close price 20 Mar 2026
Cinkarna Celje’s five-year strategy for 2024 to 2028 commits to a stable dividend policy of paying 50% of net profit. We expect the company to pay EUR 1.90 per share, up modestly from EUR 1.80 in 2025. After the volatility of recent years, with a EUR 4.10 payout in 2024 followed by a sharp normalization in 2025, the dividend has now settled into a more predictable range consistent with the stated policy. Cinkarna will continue with its long dividend paying history. The implied dividend yield of 7.0% is the highest in the index. Cinkarna is one of only two constituents whose share price has declined since the 2025 dividend proposal (down 12%), which partly explains the elevated yield relative to its colleagues.
Equinox is distinctive among SBITOP constituents in that it uses funds from operations (FFO) rather than net profit as the basis for its dividend, targeting a payout of 50 to 70% of FFO with a dividend yield goal of 3 to 5%. We expect the company to pay EUR 2.02 per share, up 10.4%, implying a yield of 3.4%. While the smallest constituent by weight (0.3%), Equinox continues to deliver steady and growing distributions. Along with Cinkarna, Equinox is the other constituent with a slight price decline since the 2025 proposal (down 2%).
Finally, Salus is the newest addition to the SBITOP index, having been included from 23 March 2026. The company’s 2023 to 2027 strategy commits to a long-term strategy of stable dividend growth and allocation of at least 50% of group net profit to dividends. Salus has already paid a dividend of EUR 1.20 per share for FY2025, implying a yield of 2.1% through 2 tranches this year. The stock entered the index with a weight of 6.4%, making it the sixth-largest constituent, a position perhaps higher than many market participants had anticipated for a company that was not in the index a year ago. The EUR 1.20 distribution represents a 16.5% increase on the EUR 1.03 paid for FY2024, and with Salus now firmly in the SBITOP, it will be worth monitoring whether the company moves toward a more generous distribution in the years ahead.
Looking at the broader picture, we continue to view Slovenian equities as fundamentally strong. The companies comprising the SBITOP index are characterized by solid balance sheets, dominant market positions, and healthy revenue growth, which makes them attractive to both institutional and retail investors. Despite the significant share price appreciation of the past two years, with the weighted average SBITOP constituent price nearly doubling since mid-2024, we believe there is still room for further capital gains, supported by continued earnings growth and potential re-rating in line with broader European peer multiples. At the same time, the expected dividend yield of around 4.5% remains attractive relative to alternatives of comparable risk, and we do not expect it to fall significantly below 4% during 2026 even if share prices continue to appreciate.
It is also worth noting that investors seeking diversified exposure to the SBITOP index can do so through InterCapital’s ETF (ticker: 7SLO on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, ICSLO on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, and ICSLOETF on the Bucharest Stock Exchange), which replicates the index according to its constituent weights. The ETF reinvests dividends, meaning that investors benefit not only from the capital appreciation of the underlying index but also from the compounding effect of reinvested distributions. Given the combination of continued DPS growth and meaningful capital gains that SBITOP constituents have delivered, this offers a convenient way to capture the full total return profile of the Slovenian blue-chip market without the need to invest in individual names.