Today we are bringing you our dividend estimates for CROBEX10 constituents – both current and incoming, as the new index revision takes effect a week from now (more on that in our second blog). Our estimates are based on unrevised Q4 results, companies’ dividend policies, and our own internal projections. Broadly speaking, we expect dividend per share growth across the board, with HPB being the sole exception, consistent with the 2025 performance of these companies.
Starting with the current index constituents, Končar Group paid a dividend of EUR 3.00 per share in 2025, implying a dividend yield of around 0.6%. Historically, Končar has been a consistent but modest dividend payer, and yields are unlikely to break above 1% in the near term as the Group continues an elevated CAPEX cycle and evaluates potential M&A opportunities. For 2026, we forecast a dividend of 3.90 per share, implying a dividend yield of roughly 0.5% at current levels and a payout ratio of around 7%.
Staying within the Končar Group, Končar D&ST is expected to remain the stronger dividend contributor, offering both a higher payout and yield. We expect dividend distribution to increase broadly in line with net income, translating into an estimated DPS of EUR 102.50, representing a 29% YoY increase and a payout ratio of around 36%. For the regular share included in the index, this implies a dividend yield of approximately 2.7%, while the preferred shares offer a slightly higher yield of around 2.8%.
Hrvatski Telekom paid out a total of EUR 125.5m in dividends last year, and combined with EUR 34.5m in share buybacks, total shareholder returns reached EUR 160m – the highest capital allocation since 2013. We expect this trend to continue and estimate a dividend of EUR 1.70 per share, up 3.5% YoY. At current prices, this implies a solid dividend yield of around 4.2%.
Estimated/actual dividend per share of select Croatian companies (2026, EUR)
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
For Podravka, we estimate a dividend of EUR 3.50 per share, an increase of roughly 9% YoY, implying a dividend yield of around 2.4% and a payout of approximately 18%. However, when adjusting net profit to majority for the one-off item related to the Agri companies acquisition, the normalized payout ratio stands closer to 33%. There is some upside risk to our estimate if the Group decides to distribute some kind of special dividend related to this one-off gain, although we currently view such a scenario as unlikely.
On the other hand, Adris Group delivered strong profitability even without one-off items, primarily driven by continued improvements in the tourism and insurance segments. We estimate a dividend of EUR 3.50 per share, up from EUR 3.00 last year, implying a payout ratio of nearly 70%. While the DPS is identical for both regular and preferred shares, yields differ materially due to price discrepancies – preferred shares, which are included in the index, currently imply a dividend yield of around 4.1%, while the regular shares offer “only” 2.9% yield.
Valamar has already proposed a dividend of EUR 0.27 per share, implying a dividend yield of approximately 4.1% at current price. The proposal is subject to approval at the General Assembly on 23 April, with the ex-dividend date set for 28 April and payment scheduled for 7 May.
For Atlantic Group, we estimate a dividend of EUR 1.80 per share, implying a 3.3% yield, supported by improved bottom line in 2025. This represents a 20% YoY increase and implies a total payout of approximately EUR 23.9m, corresponding to a payout ratio of roughly 75%.
Regarding HPB, it is worth noting that the final decision on dividend payments rests with the Croatian Government, so neither the payment nor the amount is guaranteed. Should a dividend be declared, we estimate approximately EUR 17.50 per share, implying a 6.2% yield and a 60% payout ratio. Given the 20% YoY decline in net profit in 2025, we also expect a lower dividend in line with a similar payout ratio. However, considering the Bank’s strong capital position and depending on government requirements, the dividend could ultimately come in a bit higher.
Implied dividend yields of select Croatian companies (2026, %)*
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
*dividend yield calculated on close price 13 Mar 2026
Turning to outgoing index constituents, Ericsson NT has already proposed a dividend of EUR 13.52 per share, implying a 100% payout ratio and a robust 6.9% yield at current prices. for ING-GRAD, we estimate a DPS of EUR 3.15, implying a 5.6% dividend yield. This reflects expectations of a higher payout ratio, although the final figure could be lower if the Company has undisclosed M&A in the pipeline.
Finally, among the companies entering the index, AD Plastik is expected to resume dividend payments for the first time in four years. We estimate a dividend of EUR 1.20 per share, implying a dividend yield of around 4.9%. Meanwhile, Žito is set to join the CROBEX10 index just eight months after its IPO. The Company is expected to approve an amendment to its dividend policy stipulating that shareholders will receive 30-50% of net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Additionally, a minimum guaranteed dividend of EUR 0.60 per share will be paid using retained earnings if necessary. Based on this framework, we estimate the minimum dividend of EUR 0.60 per share, implying a payout ratio of approximately 43% and a dividend yield of around 3.1% at current price.