According to the latest CPI print by the Croatian Statistical Office (DZS), the Croatian inflation rate grew by 3.8% YoY in November 2025, and 0.6% MoM. When looking at the HICP numbers and allowing comparison to other EU countries, Croatia recorded an HICP increase of 4.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM. This would mean that Croatia was the country with the 2nd-highest inflation rate inside the Eurozone, with Estonia leading the way at 4.7% YoY. To understand the dynamics of inflation, look no further and read below.
While estimates expected that Croatian inflation would cool off in November, as a result of the end of the post-summer tourist season (ending in October 2025), that has not been the case, as inflation growth was driven by a wide range of factors.
As such, the inflation rate amounted to 3.8% YoY and 0.6% MoM during November 2025. This represents an acceleration from October’s 3.6% YoY. Furthermore, the inflation rate is actually higher now than in November 2024, when it amounted to 2.8%, but is still below the level recorded in November 2023, when it stood at 4.7% YoY.
According to the flash estimate, by segment, service prices jumped 6.6% YoY, energy prices were up 5.3% YoY, while food & beverage prices were 4.1% YoY. On the other hand, non-energy industrial goods were slightly lower (-0.1% YoY).
Croatian inflation rate (September 2015 – November 2025, % growth YoY)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
The growth in inflation could be attributed to both domestic and external drivers. In regard to domestic drivers, robust consumer demand and rising wages have put upward pressure on prices. It should be noted that the Croatian economy is highly seasonal – a strong tourist season and holiday spending have spurred consumption, contributing to faster price growth. This can be seen in the service prices, of which tourism is the greatest driver.
Furthermore, Minister of the Economy Sušnjar also noted that the inflation uptick is “an unwanted effect of economic growth, wage and consumption increases…”. One of the standout domestic price growth drivers was restaurant and hotel prices, which were up 10% YoY at the end of 2024, and are standing at around 6-7% during Autumn 2025, still way above the usual and target levels. Here, we can see booming tourist demand, which was during this year primarily driven by higher prices – as numbers of arrivals and overnights have been pretty stagnant since the pandemic, only growing by single to double-digit levels as compared to the pre pandemic 2019, which was long touted as the best year for tourism, but has been overcome, especially in 2024 and 2025, but again, the primary growth driver were higher prices.
In regard to food prices, they still continue to grow, even though the Government has recently expanded the list of products for which price caps apply. Higher excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol also played a role. In general, the inflation in Croatia has been sticky due to domestic demand factors, even as headline inflation started falling in 2023/2024.
Moving on to external factors, they had a significant impact on the inflation movements in Croatia in the last couple of years. The initial inflation in 2021 to 2022 was largely imported, as a result of the global energy crisis (especially following the start of the war in Ukraine), and supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic.
The introduction of the Euro at the beginning of 2023 also played a role, although it is more limited compared to overall cost/price growth dynamics. Moving on to energy prices in 2025, they were under the mix of both domestic and external influences. For example, fuel prices increased globally in mid-2023 and 2024, which also influenced Croatia. By November 2025, energy was once again a more notable inflation driver, at the aforementioned 5.3% YoY growth.
The primary reason for this is the gradual removal of government energy subsidies. As the Government has capped household electricity rates from late 2022 until September 2024 in order to shield consumers. This cap was partially lifted in 2024, leading to a price growth of 13% YoY in October 2024. Network fees were also adjusted upward, putting additional pressure. A similar price cap removal, related to gas, was also announced a couple of months ago and implemented recently, just when the heating season started, also spurring more price growth.
In general, inflation remains high, affecting the entire economy. This time, it is primarily energy and service sector inflation driven, while before, it was energy price and wage growth driven. However, it should be noted that despite this inflation, in real terms the economy is expanding by over 2.5% this year, and is expected to grow by over 2% in 2026 and 2027. As such, there might be some truth to what the Government is saying, after all, when the economy is growing rapidly, wages and disposable incomes are growing, so will consumption. And this did occur, and as such, it was a self-fulfilling cycle – higher prices lead to demands for higher wages, which in turn, lead to companies increasing prices on goods, once again, leading to people demanding higher wages.
HICP comparison of select EU countries* (November 2025, YoY)
Source: Eurostat, respective countries’ statistical offices, InterCapital Research
*Includes only countries that have released their data; much of the data is based on estimates and is subject to change
Taking a quick look at the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), Croatia ranks 2nd highest on the YoY inflation rate growth, only “beaten” by Estonia, which recorded 4.3% YoY growth. Following the, we have Austria at 4.1%, Latvia and Slovakia at 3.8%, respectively, and Lithuania and Luxembourg, both at 3.6% YoY. On the other hand, Cyprus recorded the lowest overall YoY inflation in November, at 0.2%, followed by France at 0.8%, Italy at 1.1%, and Finland at 1.4%.