This week, we will present you with refreshed data about Croatia and Slovenia inflation figures. As the summer ends, our data for the last summery month is showing us little acceleration with a 4.2% YoY rise in Croatia, while Slovenia is cooling down and recording CPI of 2.6% YoY, contrary to Croatia.
Croatia
Croatian inflation edged slightly higher in September 2025. According to the flash estimate, headline CPI rose 4.2% YoY, up from 4.1% in August, while MoM inflation accelerated to 0.4% after 0.1% in the previous month. Last September, CPI stood at 1.6% YoY. The latest data confirm the persistence of underlying price pressures, particularly in services and food, even as some components signal modest relief.
Croatian CPI YoY growth rate (Sep 2015 – Sep 2025, %)
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research
The composition of CPI highlights continued divergence across categories. Services remained the most inflationary segment, rising 6.0% YoY, though posting a 1.1% MoM decline as the summer tourism season wound down, giving hope for further stabilization. Food, beverages and tobacco increased 5.6% YoY but fell 0.3% MoM, suggesting some positive easing momentum after prolonged pressure on households. Energy prices, which had provided intermittent disinflation earlier in the year, rose 4.5% YoY and edged 0.3% MoM higher, tracking wholesale energy market stabilization. Non-food industrial goods excluding energy contributed little on an annual basis (+0.5% YoY), but jumped 2.9% MoM, reflecting seasonal adjustments and inventory effects.
Slovenia
Slovenian inflation cooled notably compared to regional peers. In September 2025, CPI grew 2.6% YoY, down from 3.0% in August, while prices fell 0.4% MoM. The annual print remains higher than last year’s 0.6% YoY, but the broader profile continues to indicate contained dynamics and a lack of structural overheating.
Services prices rose 2.8% YoY, while goods gained 2.5% YoY. Within goods, non-durable goods increased 3.2%, semi-durable goods 2.0% and durable goods just 0.4%. The strongest annual contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages (+7.0% YoY, contributing 1.3 p.p.), followed by restaurants and hotels (+4.9%, 0.4 p.p.) and health (+4.8%, 0.3 p.p.). These categories remain consistent drivers of Slovenia’s inflation pattern.
Slovenian CPI YoY growth rate (Sep 2015 – Sep 2025, %)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
At the monthly level, deflation was driven mainly by seasonal categories. Package holidays fell 12.7% MoM, subtracting 0.6 p.p. from headline inflation, with further downward contributions from accommodation services (–6.1%, –0.1 p.p.), operation of personal transport equipment (–0.7%, –0.1 p.p.), and food (–0.5%, –0.1 p.p.). Offsetting this, clothing prices surged 12.0% MoM due to the transition to autumn–winter collections, easing the deflationary impulse by 0.5 p.p.
The harmonised index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)
Measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, Croatia recorded inflation of 4.6% YoY in September (–0.6% MoM), among the highest in the Eurozone and well above the regional average, reflecting persistent domestic pressures. Slovenia, by contrast, posted 2.7% YoY with prices flat MoM, signalling a much more contained dynamic. Within Slovenia’s HICP, services rose 3.8% YoY and goods 2.2%, with non-durable goods up 2.9% and durable goods slightly negative at –0.2%. In the wider Euro area, HICP ranged from just 0.0% in Cyprus to over 5% in Estonia and Latvia, underscoring a still fragmented inflation landscape; Croatia clearly sits in the upper quartile, while Slovenia remains closer to the Euro area median.
The harmonised index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)
Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research
Conclusion
Overall, September inflation data confirm a widening divergence between Croatia and Slovenia. Croatia remains in the upper tier of Eurozone inflation, with headline CPI at 4.2% YoY and HICP at 4.6% YoY, underscoring sticky price dynamics in services and food despite seasonal corrections. Slovenia, on the other hand, is holding inflation at 2.6% YoY (HICP 2.7%), with monthly declines driven by package holidays and accommodation, highlighting a structurally softer inflation environment. Against the broader Eurozone backdrop, where HICP prints range from near-zero in Cyprus and France to above 5% in the Baltics, Croatia’s persistence near the top of the distribution signals that domestic demand pressures remain an outlier risk. For investors, this suggests Croatia will likely continue facing higher real yield pressures and tighter monetary transmission than Slovenia, which is moving closer to the Euro area median and displaying less evidence of entrenched inflation.