In March, Romania recorded a 0.3% MoM increase in CPI, with annual inflation reaching 4.9%, while HICP stood at 5.1%. This reflects Romania’s easing but still ongoing battle with inflation. On the other hand, compared to January, average net earnings increased 0.4% in February, reflecting wage stickiness which is expected to continue exert upward pressure on inflation.

Compared to the previous month, March saw another increase in consumer prices, with the CPI rising by 0.27% compared to February. On an annual basis, inflation in March stood at 4.9%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1 p.p. from the previous month. Additionally, the 12-month average inflation rate (April 2024 – March 2025) compared to the preceding 12 months registered a 5.1% increase, marking a 0.1 p.p. decrease from February’s 12-month average. This decline reflecting inflation slowing down can also be attributed to the exclusion of March 2024 from the calculation, when CPI reached 6.6%.

Romanian CPI YoY growth rate (January 2019 – March 2025, %)

Source: Romanian National Bank, InterCapital Research

Breaking down the data, services registered the highest annual increase at 7%, followed by food goods at 5.1% and non-food goods at 3.8%. On a monthly basis, services prices rose by 0.9%, food prices by 0.8%, while non-food goods experienced a 0.3% price decrease.

Turning to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for cross-country comparisons within the EU, Romania posted a 0.34% monthly increase and an annual rate of 5.1% in March 2025. Although it is a decrease of 0.1 p.p. compared to last month’s annual rate, this level remains above Euro area countries, underscoring Romania’s ongoing challenge with elevated inflation, mixed with high public deficit which is also used to cap the energy prices.

HICP YoY change for elected EU countries (March 2025, %)

Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research

Regarding wages, the average net earnings in February 2025 stood at RON 5,351, reflecting a 0.4% increase compared to January. For the economic sector, industries leading the growth of net earnings were manufacture of tobacco products, financial and insurance services. On the other hand, manufacture of basic metals and mining of metal ores are some of the industries which recorded decreases of average net earnings, determined by the occasional bonuses, production un-achievements or lower receipts, as well as hiring staff with lower earnings as against the average. As for the budgetary sector, the average net earnings increased as against the previous month in public administration (+0.8%), while decreases were recorded in human health and social work activities (-1.8%) and education (-1.1%).

Evolution of net average earnings (February 2024 – February 2025, RON)

Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research